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Rates remain flat but underlying swaps have reduced enough in recent days to suggest that some minor cuts may be on the way in the short term. On a medium to long term horizon, could there be a muddier interest rate outlook than the one we have now? If Andrew Bailey was headmaster to his students on the MPC, he would likely haul them into his office for the mismatched communications they are currently delivering to the market. An old critique of the MPC was a group think mentality where the in-vogue consensus was not challenged, boy are we a long way from that now. In the press and on the university talk circuit the hawks and doves do battle on a near daily basis, with the hawks calling for us to hold steady on maintaining rates where they are for fear of further inflation and the doves insisting the economy is heading for a crunchy landing without further cuts. While we would encourage robust debate in private, the public lobbying only serves to confuse markets and reduce certainty, which in the context of another totemic budget on the horizon, creates discomfort for many.

(Harry Arnold, Director at Anderson Harris)

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Please see attached our rate sheet showing the most competitive deals in the UK mortgage market as of this morning. While the rate market remains hard to read, we have seen some very gentle increases in rates across all LTV brackets, however I can confirm that at this time, there is no need for hoarding cans of baked beans. With UK inflation forecast to be the highest in the OECD, at the same time as Andrew Bailey leaving the door open for further cuts if inflation compounds expectations and the job market continues to cool, it remains anyone’s guess as to where rates go from here. With so many ‘trial balloons’ released by Treasury coms relating to changes to property related taxes, it is of no surprise that both the mortgage and property market seem to be stuck in a crouch position awaiting the outcome of the budget. Once we know the details of any tax and spending changes, for better or for worse both markets will likely start to move in one direction or another.

(Harry Arnold, Director at Anderson Harris) 

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August completes slow summer but stock under offer signals improvement ahead August typically sees lower activity across the prime London sales markets and this year saw that trend mostly maintained. Sales volumes were low and prices fell, but new instructions and the number of homes going under offer both rose. There were 23.9% fewer transactions in August than the same month a year ago, and 23.6% fewer than the 2017-2019 (pre-pandemic average) August average. This was the second month in a row with activity more than 20% below last year. However, under offers were 13.3% higher in August on an annual basis and have now risen for three consecutive months. With the average time from under offer to exchange around 90 days we expect to see this translate into higher sales volumes in autumn. This is despite rising numbers of deals falling through – these were up 13.6% in August compared to the same month last year

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Sales volumes remain low but under offers, instructions, price reductions all rise. Measures of sales activity across prime London remained mixed in July. New instructions and under offers increased but transaction volumes fell. Average achieved prices were broadly unchanged on an annual basis.

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It may be the start of the summer slowdown for the sales market, but for lettings, the market is limbering up. Traditionally September is when lettings' agents are at their busiest, but just as the selling season has shifted in recent years, so has lettings. Talking to lettings' agents I hear that July is the new September and that if you want to get ahead of the crowd, now is the time to look for your early autumn let.

  1. PRIME LONDON MARKET Monthly Briefing June 2025
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  3. PRIME LONDON MARKET UPDATE SPRING 2025
  4. PRIME LONDON MARKET MONTHLY BRIEFING MARCH 2025
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