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This quarter, I’m looking back to look forward. In my last column you may remember (possibly not!) that I talked about the impact that the government’s pre-Budget kite-flying was having on the housing market. We’re now well and truly post-Budget and the taxation changes that were introduced while not great – could have been far worse. In fact some might say they were relatively benign. But the damage caused by the prolonged uncertainty in the run-up to the Budget was far from benign.

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Budget increases prime property tax burden but brings clarity to market. The Budget did deliver two of the many proposed property tax increases but, while unwelcome news for the market, sentiment is likely to improve in the immediate term as the most punitive measures were avoided and there is now clarity on future tax liabilities for anyone thinking about buying or selling after a long period of uncertainty. Average values across prime London fell by 4.0% on an annual basis in November and were 4.2% below their pre-pandemic (2017 - 2019) average level. The average discount from initial asking price increased to 9.3% in November, from a revised 9.1% in October. The new annual tax on £2m+ homes could put further downward pressure on values, although it is likely that the recent falls have partly been a result of a potential change being ‘priced in’ by buyers and sellers.

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The rate market continues its steady decline, with swaps down to where they were in mid-2022 (pre mini budget), this in response to some positive inflation numbers and the BOE signalling it thinks inflation has peaked and will now roll back over the coming months. This has allowed for the cheapest mortgage market in 3 years, which coupled with a loosening regulatory environment has allowed many banks to relax loan to income criteria and lend big to new borrowers at cheaper rates.

(Harry Arnold, Director at Anderson Harris)

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Prime London values fall while buyers and sellers wait for Budget changes Pre-Budget speculation continued to have an adverse impact on the prime London sales market in October, with values, new instructions and sales all falling. This is in stark contrast to last October where the opposite happened and deals were brought forwards ahead of the Budget, making annual comparisons appear significantly more negative. Average values across prime London fell by 5.8% on an annual basis in October and were 4.9% below their pre-pandemic (2017-2019) average level. This was the biggest annual decrease since February 2024. The average discount from initial asking price decreased to 9.3% in October compared to 10.7% in September

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Q3 often provides a difficult set of results to interpret, with a quiet July and August typically followed by a flurry of activity as agents, buyers and sellers return from their summer breaks. But this year there was little sign of a September surge. Almost all the key data metrics paint a downbeat picture for the sales market. Adding speculation around tax rises to an already fragile property market in a weak economy is not a good recipe, and activity in recent months has reflected that.

  1. Anderson Harris Mortgage Rates published 16th October 2025
  2. Anderson Harris Mortgage Rates published 25th September 2025
  3. PRIME LONDON MARKET Briefing September 2025
  4. PRIME LONDON MARKET MONTHLY BRIEFING AUGUST 2025
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