It’s spring, the sun is shining (at least today) and the trees are coming into leaf. This is a season of optimism – much needed in a world of grim and often desperate news. While no one is denying that the prime London market is anything but tricky, sometimes, enough is enough. Rather than restating the doom and gloom – we all know where to look for that – this quarter, I’m unashamedly focussing on the positives. Talking to agents, the market seems to be busy. Agents tell me they are showing lots of properties to genuine buyers. Great to hear that people are looking to buy but, to balance things out, there are also lots of people looking to sell.
As many of you will be aware from renewal negotiations over the past 12 months, the Renter's Rights Act 2025 was formally passed into law back in December 2025 and the main changes will take effect from 1st May 2026. This new legislation focuses on providing a mixture of flexibility and security to tenants whilst still affording landlords ways of regaining possession of their property beyond a 12 month protection period. The most significant part of this legislation will be the removal of fixed term tenancies as all Assured Tenancies (ATs) and Assured Shorthold Tenancies (ASTs) will no longer be valid, being replaced by Assured Periodic Tenancies (APTs), which will in effect become monthly rolling tenancies. In doing so, Section 21 'No Fault' evictions are being removed and possession will be required via the relevant grounds under Section 8 of the Landlord and Tenant Act 1988.
This quarter, I’m looking back to look forward. In my last column you may remember (possibly not!) that I talked about the impact that the government’s pre-Budget kite-flying was having on the housing market. We’re now well and truly post-Budget and the taxation changes that were introduced while not great – could have been far worse. In fact some might say they were relatively benign. But the damage caused by the prolonged uncertainty in the run-up to the Budget was far from benign.
Budget increases prime property tax burden but brings clarity to market. The Budget did deliver two of the many proposed property tax increases but, while unwelcome news for the market, sentiment is likely to improve in the immediate term as the most punitive measures were avoided and there is now clarity on future tax liabilities for anyone thinking about buying or selling after a long period of uncertainty. Average values across prime London fell by 4.0% on an annual basis in November and were 4.2% below their pre-pandemic (2017 - 2019) average level. The average discount from initial asking price increased to 9.3% in November, from a revised 9.1% in October. The new annual tax on £2m+ homes could put further downward pressure on values, although it is likely that the recent falls have partly been a result of a potential change being ‘priced in’ by buyers and sellers.
The rate market continues its steady decline, with swaps down to where they were in mid-2022 (pre mini budget), this in response to some positive inflation numbers and the BOE signalling it thinks inflation has peaked and will now roll back over the coming months. This has allowed for the cheapest mortgage market in 3 years, which coupled with a loosening regulatory environment has allowed many banks to relax loan to income criteria and lend big to new borrowers at cheaper rates.
(Harry Arnold, Director at Anderson Harris)
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